Paths to Achieve Peace and Security in Africa

 Paths to Achieve Peace and Security in Africa

It is impossible to separate peace and security in Africa from economic development, democratic governance, and improvement in the daily lives of Africans, including those from ethnic and religious minorities. A significant failing in any one of these three areas will put in serious doubt the ability of a country to maintain peace and security. Africa has experienced impressive economic growth in recent years. That is the good news. At the same time, too many African countries continue to experience conflict. That is the bad news. Conflict can quickly reverse the benefits of even strong economic growth.
 Fragile states are especially susceptible to conflict.

The African Development Bank estimates there are 20 “fragile states” today in Africa. Almost half of these states qualify as “middle income,” a shift from a decade ago when most were low-income countries. The African Futures Project, a collaborative effort involving the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa and the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, uses criteria that identify 26 fragile African countries. It projects that 10 of these countries will remain fragile until at least 2050. Whether the number of fragile states in Africa is 20 or 26, the large number is of concern for many reasons. Adding to the concern is the estimate that by 2050 some 23 percent of the world’s population will be living in Africa.

Economic Development
Fortunately, many African countries have experienced notable economic development in the past decade. The cumulative GDP growth rate in recent years of about 5 percent annually for Africa’s 54 countries has been impressive. But it is somewhat less impressive on a per capita basis, which takes into account Sub-Saharan Africa’s high population growth rate. Nor does the cumulative growth rate for all of Africa distinguish between those African economies that have performed very well and those that have done poorly. Nevertheless, significant economic progress has probably resulted in the absence of conflict and instability in a few African states where it otherwise would have been a problem.

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